The Indy passing offense plummeted to 27th in the NFL under Curtis Painter (finished #1 in passing offense in 2010 with Peyton under center). Luck has been compared to the best QB prospect since Peyton Manning (now in Denver) based on his intellect and accuracy. At 6’4, 235 he has ideal size and played in a pro style the past two years under current 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh. Over the past two seasons, the Stanford Junior has tossed 69 TDs and only 18 INTs. Luck set a new Stanford record for career touchdown passes with 82, breaking John Elway’s record of 77. Luck is a once in a decade prospect but with a barren WR corps , O-line in flux , and sub-par ground game – the rook with have his work cut out for him in 2012.
DraftCountdown.com notes that Luck still needs to work on his deep passes but has the prototypical size and mechanics to excel at the next level.
ProFootballFocus.com expects Luck to offer little in Re-draft leagues as he figures to have a major learning curve with limited weapons.
Rotoworld’s Evan Silva Ranks the Colts O-line at #31 among the 32 NFL teams - Luck will be forced to use his mobility to avoid a season ending injury.
Despite having the worst record in the NFL, the Colts face the 9th most difficult schedule for QBs - including difficult playoff matchups with Houston (week 15) and KC (week 16).
FANTASY FOOTBALL SPIN:
ADP: 120 Overall / QB16
Luck will enter his rookie season with one of the weaker casts of offensive weapons in the league. WRs Reggie Wayne and Austin Collie are serviceable but neither demands a double team. Wayne is 33 years old but did 1,000 yards in 7-straight seasons before his 2011 regression (75 catches for 960 yards). Pierre Garcon (Indy’s most dynamic playmaker in 2011) got overpaid by Dan Snyder in Washington. Donnie Avery missed 8 games last season and has failed to average more than 45 YPG in his three seasons with St Louis. He will look to fill the void left by Pierre Garcon’s exodus. The youth movement continues as the Colts project 3rd round pick TY Hilton (Florida International) to be their slot WR of the future.
Indy will rely heavily on rookie TE additions Coby Fleener (Stanford) and Dwayne Allen – labeled by most experts to be the best two in this draft class. The Luck-Fleener chemistry should help but they won’t be facing Pac-10 defenses.
The ground game has ranked at the bottom of the league in recent memory and the dynamic duo of Donald Brown and Delone Carter are middle of the road at best. Could free agent Cedric Benson get the call ?
Bottom line is Luck is likely to face major growing pains in 2012 limiting him to a late round pick in all non-dynasty leagues. There’s no knocking his intelligence as the Stanford alum scored a 37 on his Wonderlic Test (Robert Griffin III scored a 24 – considered the league average) while Peyton Manning scored a 28. However, it’s going to take a little more than book smarts to emerge as fantasy relevant in his rookie season.
Luck could emerge as a decent BYE week filler later in the season but the bumps in the road will likely limit his production early on. He’s worthy of flier in rounds 13-14 and could surprise with garbage production as the Colts figure to be playing catch up on a weekly basis.