See the entire series HERE

THE INJURY

A lisfranc injury ended Matt Schaub’s 2011 season after 10 games.  What many people don’t realize is that Shaub was averaging better than 18 fantasy points per game when he went down.  Had he continued at that pace he would have ended up as the 11th ranked QB in total fantasy points.  Schaub is on target to fully participate in training camp.

Career Stats: Final column is Fantasy Points Per Game (FPG) based on standard scoring.

YearTeamGCompAttComp %YdsYPG300+TDIntFPG
AVG./Totals (HOU)27642465%3,38126023925215.2
2004ATL6337047%330550142.2
2005ATL16336452%495310402.2
2006ATL16182767%208130120.6
2007HOU1119228966%2,24120419910.6
2008HOU1125138066%3,0432774151015.6
2009HOU1639658368%4,7702989291518.2
2010HOU1636557464%4,3702737241216.2
2011HOU1017829261%2,479248215615.3

OTHER EXPERT OPINIONS

The guys at TheFakeFootball.com have Matt Schaub listed as overvalued heading into 2012.  The point out in their Overvalued/Undervalued piece that the Texans tied for most runs per game with the Broncos.

Evan Silva ranks Schaub as the 147th best fantasy option in his top 200.  He adds that people drafting Schaub earlier are failing to realize that the Texans have transitioned from pass happy to run happy.

ProFootballFocus.com really doesn’t like Matt Schaub this year.  They have him ranked at #25 at QB and project 210 fantasy points (146 less than what they project for the top QB).

FANTASY FOOTBALL SPIN

Are the days of 4,500 passing yards going to return, no.  But, we think that some people are too low on the Texans passer.  After all, he was averaging 18.5 fantasy points per game when he went down.  So, while the Texans were tied for most rushing plays and they were one of only three teams to have more running plays than passing plays in 2011, Schaub was still one of the top 12 QBs when he went down.

Barring a rash of injuries like the team had last season, Schaub will have a healthy Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels this year, which makes a difference in both production and how they game plan.  We would have liked to see the Texans be more aggressive about filling the WR2 role (DeVier Posey has the tools but may be a project in year one), but  Schaub is a talented passer who has an above average target at TE and one of the best wide receivers in the game.  We think he’s a solid QB2 who you can plug in as part of a QB rotation or as a situational starter who can contribute to a winning fantasy team.  For instance, Schaub proved that be can victimize lesser pass defenses in 2012 when he passed for 373 yards and 3 TDs against the Saints, 416 yards and 2 TDs vs. the Raiders, and posted 296 yards and 2 TDs in Tennessee.

A glance at MyFantasyLeague.com ADP data reveals an interesting fact; the average drafter believes in Schaub more than the experts.  Schaub is the 15th QB coming off the board with an overall ADP of 109.41.  In our view he fits into the group that is just outside of the top 12 QBs and are all relatively similar in fantasy football terms.  Some have more upside than others but there isn’t much separating Schaub, Josh Freeman, Andrew Luck, Sam Bradford, Andy Dalton, Carson Palmer, Joe Flacco, and Ryan Fitzpatrick from one another in redraft leagues.  Your best bet is to grab a solid, if not outstanding, QB1 and wait on your QB2 until that group just referenced begins to thin out.  We’re not willing to spend a single digit round pick on any of them.

As a dynasty/keeper option we like Schaub a lot less.  The Texans are a run-first team with great talent and depth at the RB position and that’s how they are going to be structure for the foreseeable future.

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