, known for their statistical wizardry, presents the case for Matt Forte being overvalued.  They make good enough points to sway me back against Forte.  On Forte, I’m flip flopping like a politician.  How I feel about him depends on the day.  Thankfully Daniel Smith of has better control of his opinions.  Here is why he thinks Forte is being taken too high:

Many were disappointed in Matt Forte’s 2009 season. But just how bad was Matt Forte? Since the merger only 3 running backs managed to rush 550 times their first two seasons and have a rush average fewer than 3.8 yards. Those players were Eric Rhett, Karim Abdul-Jabar and Matt Forte. Both Rhett and Abdul-Jabar never managed another 1000 yard rushing season. Not only does history not bode well for Matt Forte, the offseason has not either. Bears management brought in a talented pass catcher in Chester Taylor and the pass happy Offensive Coordinator MikeMartz. Many around the Bears organization are expecting Forte and Taylor to split time 60/40 within this offense. Not only should Forte lose carries but he should expect to lose receptions as well. Matt Forte averaged 203.75 (standard) and 264.25 (PPR) points the past 2 years. If we were to assume a 40% decrease in production from Taylor’s arrival Forte would project a 122.25 point total in standard leagues and 158.5 in PPR leagues. A 122.25 and 158.5 projection would put Forte out of the top 30 in both standard and PPR scoring leagues in 2009, well below Forte’s current average draft position of 19th in both formats. History, opportunity and play calling trends all have turned against Matt Forte in 2010. Often drafters are quick to remember Forte’s standout season his rookie year and will accept his risk for upside. Don’t be one of the ones that fall for the lure of seasons of statistical anomalies, pass on the overvalued Matt Forte

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