Number 29 in our series of the top 30 players that may be changing teams in the off season: Roy Williams, WR, Dallas Cowboys.  Still under contract he has no chance of staying with the Cowboys under the current terms of his agreement.

Look up the word expendable in the dictionary and you might see a picture of Roy Williams.  You may also see references to “over paid” and “bust”.  Roy Williams should be nicknames “Jerry’s Folly” seems unlikely to be back in Big D for a fourth year after three disappointing seasons.  The emergence of Miles Austin and arrival of Dez Bryant mean that there is no place for Roy Williams on the Cowboys unless he is willing to take a pay cut.  Williams is due to make $9.25 million in the coming season- not exactly #3 receiver money.  Maybe Bryant will carry his shoulder pads to the plane out of town.

Williams has never hauled in more than 8 TDs in a single season.  Aside from 2004, (82/1310/7) he has never had a stand out fantasy season or lived up to the hype of being a first round pick (#7 overall in 2004).  Despite rumors that the Cowboys may be looking to extend Jerry’s Folly, a change of scenery could enhance his fantasy value if the 29 year old is given an opportunity to secure a starting job.

YearTeamGamesRec.YardsYds/GameYPC100+TDFantasy PPG
2004DET145481758.415.1289.3
2005DET134568752.815.3289.0
2006DET1682131081.916.06710.8
2007DET126383669.713.3359.5
2008DAL153643028.711.9023.7
2009DAL153859639.715.7176.8
2010DAL153753035.314.3155.5
AVERAGE145174452.414.5267.8

Williams has the physical tools and flashed talent at times in 2010 to be a third WR on a good fantasy football squad.  He has very good size at 6’3, 215 lb and could be a great red zone option for a quality offense, maybe even a somewhat inconsistent #2 in the ideal situation.  While a team would have trouble selling him as a number one wide out,  a knee jerk reaction to dismiss Roy Williams as a bum would be a mistake.

If Williams is paired with another speedy and/or talented WR in a pass heavy offense he could see his career rejuvenated.  Stranger things have happened.  What happens if Belichick gets his claws in him in New England?  How about the Bears and pass happy Mike Martz or Chiefs making him the Robin to Bowe’s Batman?  The Bengals will likely need two receivers and we could see them trying to pair Williams with Burress or Steve Smith in a trade with Carolina.

The bottom line is that Roy Williams is a fantasy black hole if he is in Dallas.  If he is paired with a quality QB and positioned opposite another quality WR, i.e. he is not sold as the WR#1; he is going to worth a roster spot.  In that case, you should be able to get a guy that will produce starting numbers more often than not at WR#5 prices.  Teams that fall into this category could be the Bengals (lots of “ifs” in that scenario), Chiefs, Bears, Chargers (depending on whether or not they keep both Floyd and V. Jackson), and the Patriots, along with any other unforeseen injury situations.

Some less than ideal WR-needy situations would be the Raiders, Browns, Niners, Panthers, Rams, and Bills.  Stay tuned as depending on where he lands, R Willy could be worth rolling the dice on in the final rounds of your 2011 fantasy drafts.  Of course the potential remains that he continues to disappoint fantasy and NFL owners for the remainder of his career but we think the former first round pick has the skill set to remain fantasy relevant for a few more years.

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